| Title | Season of attribution: future forecasts replicating operations II |
|---|---|
| Description | Forecasts using IFS EPS CY47R3b replicating operations (51 members, TCo639, ORCA025Z75). These forecasts were run after the HPCF move to Bologna on the ATOS system, and therefore are not necessarily bit-identical to the operational forecasts at the time - but are statistically equivalent. The ocean state has had a hydrostatically balanced estimate of anthropogenic influence (warming) since 1850-1900 added, such that the total anthropogenic influence is twice estimated at the present day (an equal but opposite perturbation to expid b2r8). The CO2 concentration was set to 615 ppm. These perturbations aim to produce an initial model state representative of a future climate. These forecasts are part of a series of perturbed forecast experiments designed to explore and quantify human influence on exterme weather. For more technical information on the experiment design, please see 'Heatwave Attribution Using Reliable Operational Weather Forecasts', Leach et al., 2024 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7). This 'Season of Attribution' covers the 2022-23 Northern Hemisphere winter, with 14-day forecasts initalised twice per week on Mondays and Thursdays starting 20221219 and ending 20230320. For each start date, three ensemble forecasts are run, representing initialisations in current, pre-industrial and future climate states. These are split between six MARS experiment versions as follows: - Initialised Dec 2022 - Jan 2023 - current = b2r0 - pre-industrial = b2r1 - future = b2r2 - Initialised Feb 2023 - Mar 2023 - current = b2r7 - pre-industrial = b2r8 - future = b2r9 We acknowledge the use of ECMWF's computing and archive facilities in this research under the special project spgbleac, without which this work would not have been possible. If you are interested in using these data, please let us know by contacting nicholas.leach@physics.ox.ac.uk . |
| DOI | 10.21957/kpkm-gv59 |
| Experiment ID | b2r9 |
| Experiment class | United Kingdom |
| Examples |
This requests the 50 perturbed members of total vertically-integrated column water vapour over the Pacific Ocean for a future "operational" forecast initialised on the 2nd February 2023 in netCDF format. |
Season of attribution: future forecasts replicating operations II
To retrieve the data described in this experiment, you will need to use the ECMWF Web API with the example(s) given on this page. Please note that when accessing the data you are bound by the ECMWF terms of use.